Economic Insights
We continuously share major economic insights at pivot points of maximum uncertainty to our clients years ahead of the curve,
allowing them to pre-position their strategies
to maximum competitive advantage:
BFIS Letter, - April 4, 2020
“Deglobalization and the printing presses, creating the real risk of an increase in inflation…”
BFIS Letter, - October 25, 2020
“Regardless of whether it is a Biden or Trump regime, the probability is high that it will be contested
bitterly by the “losing” side, and it will not be accepted in the hearts of the losers...”
BFIS Letter, - October 25, 2020
“A
MELT-up scenario post-interregnum is a distinct possibility in the near term...”
Into Tangible Action
Contrarian Call
on Inflation
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI had fallen 0.7% in April 2020 in the midst of COVID lockdowns, and inflation was nowhere ont the horizon. This call was fully 2 years before Powell’s transitive comments
Forces Against De-Globalization Dig In
Before the election of 2020, the events of January 6, 2021 and fully 4 years before Trump’s re-election, we descrbed that the political forces figthing Globalization were entrenching, and that election was the beginning of an Interregnum period, not the end of Protectionism.
Identifying Bubbles Before they Burst
Identifying the surge in Liquidity and its impact to the markets Prior to the Everything Bubble and SPAC boom of 2021, allowed one to behave accordingly during the Bubble.
BFIS Letter, - October 25, 2020
“Russia is itself distracted, as it remains embroiled in Donetsk
(Ukraine), and now Belarus, as well as Syria and Libya on the opposite side of Turkey…..leaves Russia precariously close to an
expanded conflict if the shooting moves from a proxy war to a direct conflict.”
BFIS Letter, - May 9, 2020
“ The death of data only serves to reduce confidence further, as segments of the citizenry may feel poorly led by leaders without a Strategy, but also further Manipulated. The former could be somewhat forgiven, such that the job requirement of managing a pandemic is not immediately foreseeable and some time would be granted to politicians to adjust (as seen in higher polls of support), but the latter is not forgivable. Or put simply – finger pointing based on BS data, degrades trust in leadership.”,
BFIS Letter, - July 25, 2020
“When
the central bank makes up for the decline
in velocity by equivalent money printing,
then the price or relative value of currency
to other reference assets will decline ... deflation and debasement are
not mutually exclusive when internal deflation
is partly due to decline in the velocity of
money, which has been compensated for by an
increase in money supply equal to or greater
than the decline in goods/services transacted.”
Across Many Evolving Operating Dimensions
The Rise of Militarism and Mercantalism
Highlighted 17 mos. before the direct invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022, we highlighted how the end of History was ending into a new era. Everything from commodities, currencies, to Global logistics and finance; from Defense to Basic Staples will be continuosly impacted by the new era.
Eroding Trust in Traditional Institutions & the Rise of New Sources
The decline of trust in media's impartiality and truthfulness; professional judgment in core fields of endeavour; and governments execution of Good governance; for better or worse, create unprecedented challenges to incumbents and new entrants in many industries.
Debasement, and the Deflation vs. Inflation Conundrum
In July 2020, the conundrum of deflation vs. debasement (occurring vs. gold and crypto) was solved by introducing the concept - intervention until that time covered a decline in money velocity. Re-opening would re-introduce inflation coincident with debasement
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